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When is the next “Alt Season”?

Mark Cullen • 3 May 2021
  1. What is Alt Season?
  2. What is #Bitcoin Dominance?
  3. How to interpret BTC.D
  4. How to trade based on BTC.D
  5. What is TOTAL2?
  6. How to interpret #TOTAL2
  7. How BTC.D and TOTAL2 can be used in conjunction
  8. What is the current state of play?

1. -- What is “Alt Season”? --


  • A.k.a Altszn, is a part of the cryptocurrency market cycle when many alt coins “moon”
  • "Mooning" is when a coin go up quickly in price
  • Basically an Altszn is when the Alts are out performing BTC against the $New Paragraph


2. -- What is Bitcoin Dominance? --


Ticker: BTC.D on trading view


  • BTC.D is the ratio between the market cap of BTC to the rest of the crypto markets
  • Bitcoin is still the largest cryptocurrency, but over time its dominance has dropped as new cryptocurrencies were created


3. -- How to interpret BTC.D --


  • BTC.D increases, BTC is gaining market share
  • BTC.D decreases, BTC is losing market share
  • Think of market share as the % of all the money currently invested in Cryptocurrencies
  • Note that the Price of BTC isn't directly correlated to BTC.D


4. -- How to trade based on BTC.D --


In general:

  • BTC.D increasing, exit weak Alt trades and have a higher % of your portfolio in BTC
  • BTC.D decreases, enter strong Alt trades and have a higher % of your portfolio in Alt coins


  • However value of BTC can drop or rise taking the Alts with it and the dominance could stay static
  • This is why you need to add in another indicator to help determine what you should do, TOTAL2


5. -- What is TOTAL2? --

Ticker: TOTAL2 on trading view



  • TOTAL2 is an index that represents the total crypto market cap EXCLUDING BTC
  • Think of it as the total amount of money currently invested in everything crypto minus Bitcoin


6. -- How to interpret TOTAL2 --


  • TOTAL2 increases, more money is flowing into the Alt coins
  • TOTAL2 decreases, money is flowing out of the Alt coins
  • Note that TOTAL2 isn't directly related to the value of BTC, in fact sometimes it is inversely correlated


7. -- How to identify an Altszn?--


  • You need to use BTC.D and TOTAL2 in conjunction together with the $BTC price chart 
  • The signature you are looking for is:


  1. TOTAL2 shooting UP
  2. BTC.D dropping
  3. BTC PA static or falling


  • Typically you get an Altszn when BTC has found a local top or is consolidating
  • A good example of an Altszn is the 2017 top Down pointing backhand index


8. -- What is the current state of play?--


  • We have just seen a mini Altszn, as shown in the chart below
  • So could this mini Altszn be over for now?
  • What happens next? & what to look for?
  • IMHO, I think BTC.D may bounce & BTC $ value become volatile i.e. push up or down
  • If BTC pushes up Alts will likely do OK against the $ pairs, but not against BTC
  • BUT if BTC dumps, Alts will likely lose more $ value than BTC
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