When is the next “Alt Season”?
Mark Cullen • 3 May 2021
- What is Alt Season?
- What is #Bitcoin Dominance?
- How to interpret BTC.D
- How to trade based on BTC.D
- What is TOTAL2?
- How to interpret #TOTAL2
- How BTC.D and TOTAL2 can be used in conjunction
- What is the current state of play?
1. -- What is “Alt Season”? --
- A.k.a Altszn, is a part of the cryptocurrency market cycle when many alt coins “moon”
- "Mooning" is when a coin go up quickly in price
- Basically an Altszn is when the Alts are out performing BTC against the $New Paragraph
2. -- What is Bitcoin Dominance? --
Ticker: BTC.D on trading view
- BTC.D is the ratio between the market cap of BTC to the rest of the crypto markets
- Bitcoin is still the largest cryptocurrency, but over time its dominance has dropped as new cryptocurrencies were created
3. -- How to interpret BTC.D --
- BTC.D increases, BTC is gaining market share
- BTC.D decreases, BTC is losing market share
- Think of market share as the % of all the money currently invested in Cryptocurrencies
- Note that the Price of BTC isn't directly correlated to BTC.D
4. -- How to trade based on BTC.D --
In general:
- BTC.D increasing, exit weak Alt trades and have a higher % of your portfolio in BTC
- BTC.D decreases, enter strong Alt trades and have a higher % of your portfolio in Alt coins
- However value of BTC can drop or rise taking the Alts with it and the dominance could stay static
- This is why you need to add in another indicator to help determine what you should do, TOTAL2
5. -- What is TOTAL2? --
Ticker: TOTAL2 on trading view
- TOTAL2 is an index that represents the total crypto market cap EXCLUDING BTC
- Think of it as the total amount of money currently invested in everything crypto minus Bitcoin
6. -- How to interpret TOTAL2 --
- TOTAL2 increases, more money is flowing into the Alt coins
- TOTAL2 decreases, money is flowing out of the Alt coins
- Note that TOTAL2 isn't directly related to the value of BTC, in fact sometimes it is inversely correlated
7. -- How to identify an Altszn?--
- You need to use BTC.D and TOTAL2 in conjunction together with the $BTC price chart
- The signature you are looking for is:
- TOTAL2 shooting UP
- BTC.D dropping
- BTC PA static or falling
- Typically you get an Altszn when BTC has found a local top or is consolidating
- A good example of an Altszn is the 2017 top Down pointing backhand index
8. -- What is the current state of play?--
- We have just seen a mini Altszn, as shown in the chart below
- So could this mini Altszn be over for now?
- What happens next? & what to look for?
- IMHO, I think BTC.D may bounce & BTC $ value become volatile i.e. push up or down
- If BTC pushes up Alts will likely do OK against the $ pairs, but not against BTC
- BUT if BTC dumps, Alts will likely lose more $ value than BTC

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